Poland
Based on the most recent published official birth records (and Birthgap harmonisation where noted).
Poland is experiencing increasing lifetime childlessness, which rose to 47.4% in 2024, marking a 3.4 percentage point increase from the previous year and placing it among the highest rates in Europe. At the same time, the total fertility gap widened to 47.5%, reflecting ongoing challenges in achieving desired family sizes despite a slight rise from 2023.
- Completed fertility declined to 52.6% in 2024, continuing a downward trend over recent years.
- Average maternal age has inched up to 29.4 years, consistent with a gradual increase observed since 2020.
- The average number of children per mother slightly decreased to 2.07, near historical levels for the country.
- Family size shifts include a drop in one-child mothers to 23.0%, while two-child families remain predominant at 49.3%.
In 2024, Poland faces one of Europe's lowest fertility rates and high childlessness, with birth trends indicating a significant demographic decline ahead.
- Total Mothers Remaining Fertile (TMR) among the lowest in Europe
- High lifetime childlessness rate ranked 3rd highest in Europe
- Average maternal age rising, placing Poland near the middle in Europe
- Fertility gap sharply increased, ranking 3rd highest in Europe
- Future worker gap among Europe’s highest, indicating workforce challenges
Key fertility indicators — Poland
| Childlessness Rate (TCR) | 47.4% |
| Societal Half-Life (SHL) | 33.7 years |
| TGI (great-grandchildren per 100 parents) | 14 |
Motherhood prevalence (TMR)
Among mothers in Poland, completed fertility is 52.6% (2024). It declined relative to 2023 (down 3.4pp). Looking at the last five years, TMR has been falling (average 59.1% across 2020–2024). Looking back to the 2020s (59.1%), TMR stands lower by about 6.5pp.
Globally, Poland has one of the lowest TMR values (ranked 38/42). Within Europe, Poland has one of the lowest TMR values (ranked 28/30).
| Year | TMR | Year | TMR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | n/a | 2010 | 68.8% |
| 1980 | 90.1% | 2020 | 65.3% |
| 1990 | 86.9% | 2023 | 56.0% |
| 2000 | 62.5% | 2024 | 52.6% |
Source: Eurostat; Human Fertility Database.
Children per mother (CPM)
Poland’s children per mother (CPM) stands at 2.07 in 2024. There has been a modest decline since 2023 (down 0.04). Over the past five years, CPM has been falling, averaging 2.11. Against the oldest decade baseline on record (2020s, 2.11), completed family size today is close to that long-run level.
Globally, Poland ranks 28 out of 42 countries for CPM. Within Europe, Poland ranks 19 out of 30 countries for CPM.
| Year | CPM | Year | CPM |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | n/a | 2010 | 1.99 |
| 1980 | 2.50 | 2020 | 2.12 |
| 1990 | 2.38 | 2023 | 2.11 |
| 2000 | 2.19 | 2024 | 2.07 |
Source: Eurostat; Human Fertility Database.
Average maternal age (AMA)
Poland’s mean age at childbearing is 29.4 in 2024. It has edged up slightly (+0.2 years). Looking at the last five years, AMA has been rising (average 28.5 years). Relative to the earliest available baseline in the 2020s (28.5 years), today’s AMA is higher by about 0.8 years.
Globally, Poland ranks 30 out of 42 countries for average maternal age. Within Europe, Poland ranks 21 out of 30 countries for average maternal age.
| Year | BIRTH | Year | BIRTH |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | n/a | 2010 | 26.44 |
| 1980 | 23.42 | 2020 | 27.84 |
| 1990 | 23.34 | 2023 | 29.19 |
| 2000 | 24.52 | 2024 | 29.36 |
Source: Eurostat; Human Fertility Database.
Total Fertility Gap (TFG)
In 2024, Poland’s TFG is 47.5% (equivalent to a TFR of 1.09). It increased relative to 2023 (up 4.7pp). Over the past five years, the Total Fertility Gap has been rising; the 2020–2024 average is 39.7%. Compared with the long-run norm from the 2020s (39.7%), the fertility gap today is higher by about 7.8pp.
Globally, Poland has one of the highest TFG values (ranked 5/42). Within Europe, Poland has one of the highest TFG values (ranked 3/30).
| Year | TFG | Year | TFG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | n/a | 2010 | 33.8% |
| 1980 | n/a | 2020 | 33.1% |
| 1990 | n/a | 2023 | 42.8% |
| 2000 | 34.0% | 2024 | 47.5% |
Source: Eurostat; Human Fertility Database.
Future Worker Gap (FWG)
In 2024, Poland’s Future Worker Gap (FWG) is 50.9%. It rose sharply compared with 2023 (up 5.8pp). Looking at the last five years, FWG has been rising (average 36.6% across 2020–2024). Compared with the long-run norm from the 2020s (36.6%), the future worker gap today is higher by about 14.3pp.
Globally, Poland ranks 9 out of 39 countries for FWG. Within Europe, Poland has one of the highest FWG values (ranked 5/29).
| Year | FWG | Year | FWG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | n/a | 2010 | 29.2% |
| 1980 | -58.1% | 2020 | 22.2% |
| 1990 | -40.0% | 2023 | 45.1% |
| 2000 | 31.3% | 2024 | 50.9% |
Source: Eurostat; Human Fertility Database.
Societal Half-Life (SHL)
In 2024, Poland’s Societal Half-Life (SHL) is 33.7 years. It moved sharply down from 2023 (down 4.9 years). Over the past five years, SHL has been falling; the 2020–2024 average is 42.6 years. Against the oldest decade baseline on record (2020s, 42.6 years), SHL now stands lower by about 8.8 years.
Globally, Poland has one of the lowest SHL values (ranked 38/42). Within Europe, Poland has one of the lowest SHL values (ranked 28/30).
Triple Generation Impact (TGI)
With this Birthgap (TFG) for every 100 people of fertility age in Poland, there would be 14 great-grandchildren, representing a -86.0% drop from the current generation.
Globally, Poland has one of the lowest TGI values (ranked 38/42).
Within Europe, Poland has one of the lowest TGI values (ranked 28/30).
Birth trajectory
Milestones Years: - Births down 50% in 2058 - Births down 75% in 2091 - Births down 90% in 2136
Based on the 2024 birth pattern, total births would fall by half from 251,800 in 2024 to 125,900 in 2058, and by 90% to 25,180 in 2136 (ignoring migration).
Childlessness rate (TCR)
In 2024, Poland’s lifetime childlessness rate (TCR) stands at 47.4%. It increased relative to 2023 (up 3.4pp). Looking at the last five years, childlessness has been rising (average 40.9% across 2020–2024). Compared with the long-run norm from the 2020s (40.9%), Poland’s current TCR is higher by about 6.5pp.
Globally, Poland has one of the highest childlessness rates (ranked 5/42). Within Europe, Poland has one of the highest childlessness rates (ranked 3/30).
| Year | TCR | Year | TCR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | n/a | 2010 | 31.2% |
| 1980 | 9.9% | 2020 | 34.7% |
| 1990 | 13.1% | 2023 | 44.0% |
| 2000 | 37.5% | 2024 | 47.4% |
Source: Eurostat; Human Fertility Database.
Total births
Total births in Poland were 251,800 in 2024. It is down from 2023 by 20,541 births. Over the past five years, total births have been falling, averaging 302,934 per year. Compared with the 2020s average (302,934), total births are now lower by 51,134 births (16.9% decrease).
| Year | Births | Year | Births |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | n/a | 2010 | 412.1k |
| 1980 | 692.7k | 2020 | 354.7k |
| 1990 | 548.7k | 2023 | 272.3k |
| 2000 | 379.0k | 2024 | 251.8k |
Source: Eurostat; Human Fertility Database.
Future Worker Gap (FWG)
In 2024, Poland’s Future Worker Gap (FWG) is 50.9%. It rose sharply compared with 2023 (up 5.8pp). Looking at the last five years, FWG has been rising (average 36.6% across 2020–2024). Compared with the long-run norm from the 2020s (36.6%), the future worker gap today is higher by about 14.3pp.
Globally, Poland ranks 9 out of 39 countries for FWG. Within Europe, Poland has one of the highest FWG values (ranked 5/29).
| Year | FWG | Year | FWG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | n/a | 2010 | 29.2% |
| 1980 | -58.1% | 2020 | 22.2% |
| 1990 | -40.0% | 2023 | 45.1% |
| 2000 | 31.3% | 2024 | 50.9% |
Source: Eurostat; Human Fertility Database.
