Japan
Based on the most recent published official birth records (and Birthgap harmonisation where noted).
Japan's total maternal rate has continued its gradual decline, reaching 54.9% in 2024, down 1.7 percentage points from the previous year and about 4 points lower than the early 2020s average. Despite this decline in motherhood prevalence, the average number of children per mother has slightly increased to 2.16, reflecting a modest rise in family size among mothers. Meanwhile, the average maternal age has inched up to 30.9 years, maintaining a trend toward later motherhood.
- The Total Fertility Gap widened to 44.4% in 2024, indicating increasing disparity between desired and actual fertility, and ranks among the highest globally.
- Childlessness rose slightly to 45.1% in 2024, continuing a steady upward trend over the past five years and placing Japan high internationally for women who remain without children.
- Among mothers, those with two children increased slightly to 51.4%, while mothers of three or more children declined, continuing a longer-term fall in larger families.
In 2024, Japan continues to face demographic challenges with one of the world's lowest maternal rates and a rising maternal age.
- Total maternal rate among lowest globally, ranked 36 of 42
- Average children per mother steady around 2.16, ranked 22 globally
- Maternal age increasing, now near 31 years, ranked 10 of 42
- High proportion of childlessness, rising above 45%, ranked 7 globally
- Sharply declining strong hereditary link, among lowest globally, ranked 36
Key fertility indicators — Japan
| Total Maternal Rate (TMR) | 54.9% |
| Average Maternal Age (AMA) | 30.9 years |
| TGI (great-grandchildren per 100 parents) | 17 |
| Total births (latest year) | 686,173 |
Motherhood prevalence (TMR)
Japan’s total maternal rate (TMR) is 54.9% in 2024. There has been a small decline from 2023 (down 1.7pp). Over the past five years, TMR has been falling; the 2020–2024 average is 58.9%. Relative to the earliest available baseline in the 2020s (58.9%), today’s TMR is lower by about 4.0pp.
Globally, Japan has one of the lowest TMR values (ranked 36/42).
| Year | TMR | Year | TMR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | 94.8% | 2010 | 68.0% |
| 1980 | 78.1% | 2020 | 63.2% |
| 1990 | 66.5% | 2023 | 56.6% |
| 2000 | 66.2% | 2024 | 54.9%* |
Source: Human Fertility Database. *Measure estimated by Birthgap.org based on partial data from Statistics Bueau of Japan.
Children per mother (CPM)
The average number of children per mother in Japan is 2.16 (2024). It is marginally higher than in 2023 (up 0.05). Across the most recent five-year window, CPM is rising with an average of 2.13. Compared with the long-run norm from the 2020s (2.13), mothers in Japan are now having close to that long-run level children on average.
Globally, Japan ranks 22 out of 42 countries for CPM.
| Year | CPM | Year | CPM |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | 2.26 | 2010 | 2.03 |
| 1980 | 2.22 | 2020 | 2.10 |
| 1990 | 2.32 | 2023 | 2.12 |
| 2000 | 2.06 | 2024 | 2.16* |
Source: Human Fertility Database. *Measure estimated by Birthgap.org based on partial data from Statistics Bueau of Japan.
Average maternal age (AMA)
In 2024, the average maternal age (AMA) at birth is 30.9 years. It has edged up slightly (+0.2 years). Over the past five years, AMA has been rising, averaging 30.6 years. Against the oldest decade baseline on record (2020s, 30.6 years), AMA now stands close to that long-run level.
Globally, Japan ranks 10 out of 42 countries for average maternal age.
| Year | BIRTH | Year | BIRTH |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | 25.81 | 2010 | 29.27 |
| 1980 | 26.07 | 2020 | 30.29 |
| 1990 | 27.15 | 2023 | 30.71 |
| 2000 | 28.03 | 2024 | 30.89* |
Source: Human Fertility Database. *Measure estimated by Birthgap.org based on partial data from Statistics Bueau of Japan.
Total Fertility Gap (TFG)
In 2024, Japan’s TFG is 44.4% (equivalent to a TFR of 1.15). It increased relative to 2023 (up 2.2pp). Across the most recent five-year window (2020–2024), the Total Fertility Gap has been rising with an average of 39.9%. Relative to the earliest available baseline in the 2020s (39.9%), today’s TFG is higher by about 4.5pp.
Globally, Japan has one of the highest TFG values (ranked 7/42).
| Year | TFG | Year | TFG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | n/a | 2010 | 33.3% |
| 1980 | 16.2% | 2020 | 36.0% |
| 1990 | 25.4% | 2023 | 42.2% |
| 2000 | 34.2% | 2024 | 44.4%* |
Source: Human Fertility Database. *Measure estimated by Birthgap.org based on partial data from Statistics Bueau of Japan.
Future Worker Gap (FWG)
Japan’s FWG is 65.4% in 2024. It increased relative to 2023 (up 2.4pp). Looking at the last five years, FWG has been rising (average 59.6% across 2020–2024). Against the oldest decade baseline on record (2020s, 59.6%), the FWG stands higher by about 5.8pp.
Globally, Japan has one of the highest FWG values (ranked 3/39).
| Year | FWG | Year | FWG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | -103.9% | 2010 | 30.7% |
| 1980 | -6.2% | 2020 | 53.8% |
| 1990 | 20.3% | 2023 | 63.0% |
| 2000 | 48.0% | 2024 | 65.4%* |
Source: Human Fertility Database. *Measure estimated by Birthgap.org based on partial data from Statistics Bueau of Japan.
Societal Half-Life (SHL)
In 2024, SHL in Japan is 38.8 years. It moved sharply down from 2023 (down 2.5 years). Over the past five years, SHL has been falling; the 2020–2024 average is 44.7 years. Relative to the earliest available baseline in the 2020s (44.7 years), today’s SHL is lower by about 5.9 years.
Globally, Japan ranks 34 out of 42 countries for SHL.
Triple Generation Impact (TGI)
With this Birthgap (TFG) for every 100 people of fertility age in Japan, there would be 17 great-grandchildren, representing a -83.0% drop from the current generation.
Globally, Japan has one of the lowest TGI values (ranked 36/42).
Birth trajectory
Milestones Years: - Births down 50% in 2063 - Births down 75% in 2102 - Births down 90% in 2153
Based on the 2024 birth pattern, total births would fall by half from 686,173 in 2024 to 343,086 in 2063, and by 90% to 68,617 in 2153 (ignoring migration).
Childlessness rate (TCR)
45.1% of women in Japan remain childless over their lifetime (2024). It has edged up slightly from 2023 (up 1.7pp). Over the past five years, childlessness has been rising; the 2020–2024 average is 41.1%. Looking back to the 2020s (41.1%), childlessness is now higher by about 4.0pp.
Globally, Japan has one of the highest childlessness rates (ranked 7/42).
| Year | TCR | Year | TCR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | 5.2% | 2010 | 32.0% |
| 1980 | 21.9% | 2020 | 36.8% |
| 1990 | 33.5% | 2023 | 43.4% |
| 2000 | 33.8% | 2024 | 45.1%* |
Source: Human Fertility Database. *Measure estimated by Birthgap.org based on partial data from Statistics Bueau of Japan.
Total births
In 2024, Japan recorded 686,173 total births. It is down from 2023 by 40,988 births. Over the past five years, total births have been falling, averaging 767,455 per year. Compared with the 2020s average (767,455), total births are now lower by 81,282 births (10.6% decrease).
| Year | Births | Year | Births |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | 1.94M | 2010 | 1.07M |
| 1980 | 1.58M | 2020 | 841.1k |
| 1990 | 1.22M | 2023 | 727.2k |
| 2000 | 1.19M | 2024 | 686.2k* |
Source: Human Fertility Database. *Measure estimated by Birthgap.org based on partial data from Statistics Bueau of Japan.
Future Worker Gap (FWG)
Japan’s FWG is 65.4% in 2024. It increased relative to 2023 (up 2.4pp). Looking at the last five years, FWG has been rising (average 59.6% across 2020–2024). Against the oldest decade baseline on record (2020s, 59.6%), the FWG stands higher by about 5.8pp.
Globally, Japan has one of the highest FWG values (ranked 3/39).
| Year | FWG | Year | FWG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | -103.9% | 2010 | 30.7% |
| 1980 | -6.2% | 2020 | 53.8% |
| 1990 | 20.3% | 2023 | 63.0% |
| 2000 | 48.0% | 2024 | 65.4%* |
Source: Human Fertility Database. *Measure estimated by Birthgap.org based on partial data from Statistics Bueau of Japan.
