Italy
Based on the most recent published official birth records (and Birthgap harmonisation where noted).
Italy continues to experience a gradual decline in fertility indicators alongside a rising fertility gap and increasing childlessness. The total maternal rate dropped slightly to 58.9% in 2024, maintaining a downward trend over the past five years. Meanwhile, the average maternal age at birth remains among the highest globally, reaching 32.3 years and edging upward.
- The total fertility gap rose to 43.0%, marking one of the highest levels in Europe, which signals a significant shortfall in births compared to replacement levels.
- Lifetime childlessness increased marginally to 41.1%, consistent with a long-term upward trend, placing Italy relatively high in childlessness rates within Europe.
- Mothers with one child now represent 26.0% of mothers, a slight increase suggesting a shift in family size preferences.
- Despite slight year-on-year declines, mothers averaged 1.99 children in 2024, below replacement level, reflecting continued low fertility.
In 2024, Italy experienced a slight decline in average children per mother with stable long-term low fertility rates and an increasing maternal age.
- Average maternal age highest in Europe at 32.3 years
- Low total maternal rate ranked 23rd/30 in Europe
- High total fertility gap, 6th highest in Europe
- Rising lifetime childlessness, 8th highest in Europe
- Births projected to decline sharply by 90% by 2165
Key fertility indicators — Italy
| Total Maternal Rate (TMR) | 58.9% |
| Childlessness Rate (TCR) | 41.1% |
| Average Maternal Age (AMA) | 32.3 years |
| Birthgap Indicator (TFG) | 43.0% |
| Societal Half-Life (SHL) | 42.3 years |
| TGI (great-grandchildren per 100 parents) | 19 |
| Total births (latest year) | 369,944 |
Motherhood prevalence (TMR)
In 2024, the total maternal rate (TMR) is 58.9%. It has eased slightly from 2023 (down 0.6pp). Over the past five years, TMR has been falling; the 2020–2024 average is 59.7%. Against the oldest decade baseline on record (2020s, 59.7%), mothers are now having close to that long-run level children on average.
Globally, Italy ranks 31 out of 42 countries for TMR. Within Europe, Italy ranks 23 out of 30 countries for TMR.
| Year | TMR | Year | TMR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | n/a | 2010 | 73.8% |
| 1980 | n/a | 2020 | 59.7% |
| 1990 | n/a | 2023 | 59.5% |
| 2000 | n/a | 2024 | 58.9%* |
Source: Eurostat; Human Fertility Database. *Measure estimated by Birthgap.org based on partial data from istat.it.
Children per mother (CPM)
In 2024, mothers in Italy had an average of 1.99 children. There has been a modest decline since 2023 (down 0.02). Over the past five years, CPM has been falling, averaging 2.05. Relative to the earliest available baseline in the 2020s (2.05), today’s CPM is lower by about 0.06.
Globally, Italy ranks 33 out of 42 countries for CPM. Within Europe, Italy ranks 23 out of 30 countries for CPM.
| Year | CPM | Year | CPM |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | n/a | 2010 | 1.95 |
| 1980 | n/a | 2020 | 2.08 |
| 1990 | n/a | 2023 | 2.02 |
| 2000 | n/a | 2024 | 1.99* |
Source: Eurostat; Human Fertility Database. *Measure estimated by Birthgap.org based on partial data from istat.it.
Average maternal age (AMA)
In 2024, the average maternal age (AMA) at birth is 32.3 years. It has edged up slightly (+0.1 years). Looking at the last five years, AMA has been rising (average 31.8 years). Compared with the long-run norm from the 2020s (31.8 years), the average maternal age today is higher by about 0.5 years.
Globally, Italy has one of the highest average maternal ages (ranked 2/42). Within Europe, Italy has the highest average maternal age (ranked 1/30).
| Year | BIRTH | Year | BIRTH |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | n/a | 2010 | 30.18 |
| 1980 | n/a | 2020 | 31.41 |
| 1990 | n/a | 2023 | 32.16 |
| 2000 | n/a | 2024 | 32.30* |
Source: Eurostat; Human Fertility Database. *Measure estimated by Birthgap.org based on partial data from istat.it.
Total Fertility Gap (TFG)
Italy’s Total Fertility Gap (TFG) is 43.0% in 2024 (equivalent to a TFR of 1.18). There has been a slight increase since 2023 (up 1.0pp). Over the past five years, the Total Fertility Gap has been rising; the 2020–2024 average is 40.9%. Compared with the long-run norm from the 2020s (40.9%), the fertility gap today is higher by about 2.1pp.
Globally, Italy ranks 9 out of 42 countries for TFG. Within Europe, Italy has one of the highest TFG values (ranked 6/30).
| Year | TFG | Year | TFG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | n/a | 2010 | 30.5% |
| 1980 | n/a | 2020 | 39.9% |
| 1990 | n/a | 2023 | 42.0% |
| 2000 | n/a | 2024 | 43.0%* |
Source: Eurostat; Human Fertility Database. *Measure estimated by Birthgap.org based on partial data from istat.it.
Future Worker Gap (FWG)
Italy’s FWG is 60.7% in 2024. It is up marginally on 2023 (up 0.7pp). Across the most recent five-year window (2020–2024), FWG has been rising with an average of 59.2%. Against the oldest decade baseline on record (2020s, 59.2%), the FWG stands higher by about 1.5pp.
Globally, Italy has one of the highest FWG values (ranked 5/39). Within Europe, Italy has the highest FWG (ranked 1/29).
| Year | FWG | Year | FWG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | n/a | 2010 | 33.6% |
| 1980 | n/a | 2020 | 58.6% |
| 1990 | n/a | 2023 | 60.0% |
| 2000 | n/a | 2024 | 60.7%* |
Source: Eurostat; Human Fertility Database. *Measure estimated by Birthgap.org based on partial data from istat.it.
Societal Half-Life (SHL)
In 2024, Italy’s Societal Half-Life (SHL) is 42.3 years. It moved sharply down from 2023 (down 1.2 years). Over the past five years, SHL has been falling; the 2020–2024 average is 44.6 years. Compared with the long-run norm from the 2020s (44.6 years), the societal half-life today is lower by about 2.3 years.
Globally, Italy ranks 33 out of 42 countries for SHL. Within Europe, Italy has one of the lowest SHL values (ranked 24/30).
Triple Generation Impact (TGI)
With this Birthgap (TFG) for every 100 people of fertility age in Italy, there would be 19 great-grandchildren, representing a -81.0% drop from the current generation.
Globally, Italy ranks 35 out of 42 countries for TGI.
Within Europe, Italy has one of the lowest TGI values (ranked 26/30).
Birth trajectory
Milestones Years: - Births down 50% in 2066 - Births down 75% in 2109 - Births down 90% in 2165
Based on the 2024 birth pattern, total births would fall by half from 369,944 in 2024 to 184,972 in 2066, and by 90% to 36,994 in 2165 (ignoring migration).
Childlessness rate (TCR)
In 2024, Italy’s lifetime childlessness rate (TCR) stands at 41.1%. There has been a slight increase since 2023 (up 0.6pp). Looking at the last five years, childlessness has been rising (average 40.3% across 2020–2024). Compared with the long-run norm from the 2020s (40.3%), Italy’s current TCR is close to that long-run level.
Globally, Italy ranks 12 out of 42 countries for childlessness. Within Europe, Italy ranks 8 out of 30 countries for childlessness.
| Year | TCR | Year | TCR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | n/a | 2010 | 26.2% |
| 1980 | n/a | 2020 | 40.3% |
| 1990 | n/a | 2023 | 40.5% |
| 2000 | n/a | 2024 | 41.1%* |
Source: Eurostat; Human Fertility Database. *Measure estimated by Birthgap.org based on partial data from istat.it.
Total births
In 2024, Italy recorded 369,944 total births. It is down from 2023 by 9,422 births. Over the past five years, total births have been falling, averaging 389,284 per year. Compared with the 2020s average (389,284), total births are now lower by 19,340 births.
| Year | Births | Year | Births |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | n/a | 2010 | 561.7k |
| 1980 | n/a | 2020 | 404.5k |
| 1990 | n/a | 2023 | 379.4k |
| 2000 | n/a | 2024 | 369.9k* |
Source: Eurostat; Human Fertility Database. *Measure estimated by Birthgap.org based on partial data from istat.it.
Future Worker Gap (FWG)
Italy’s FWG is 60.7% in 2024. It is up marginally on 2023 (up 0.7pp). Across the most recent five-year window (2020–2024), FWG has been rising with an average of 59.2%. Against the oldest decade baseline on record (2020s, 59.2%), the FWG stands higher by about 1.5pp.
Globally, Italy has one of the highest FWG values (ranked 5/39). Within Europe, Italy has the highest FWG (ranked 1/29).
| Year | FWG | Year | FWG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | n/a | 2010 | 33.6% |
| 1980 | n/a | 2020 | 58.6% |
| 1990 | n/a | 2023 | 60.0% |
| 2000 | n/a | 2024 | 60.7%* |
Source: Eurostat; Human Fertility Database. *Measure estimated by Birthgap.org based on partial data from istat.it.
