Estonia
Based on the most recent published official birth records (and Birthgap harmonisation where noted).
Estonia's demographic profile in 2024 features a notable decline in total maternal rate alongside a rising childlessness rate, highlighting a continuing shift toward fewer births per woman. Despite an increase in the total fertility gap, indicating unmet fertility potential, the overall birth numbers are falling and mothers are having children at a slightly younger average age compared to the previous year.
- Total maternal rate dropped by 3.7 percentage points to 51.9%, maintaining Estonia's position as the lowest in Europe for this metric.
- Childlessness rose by 3.7 percentage points to 48.1%, the highest rate among 30 European countries and third highest globally.
- The total fertility gap increased sharply by 5.9 percentage points to 43.0%, suggesting a growing disparity between desired and actual fertility.
- Average maternal age decreased by 0.7 years to 28.9, reversing a longer-term trend of rising maternal age.
In 2024, Estonia faces notable demographic declines with low fertility rates and rising childlessness amid a shrinking birth cohort.
- Lowest total maternal rate in Europe
- High average children per mother by European standards
- Highest childlessness rate in Europe
- Marked decline in births projected by 2062
- Among highest future worker gap in Europe
Key fertility indicators — Estonia
| Total Maternal Rate (TMR) | 51.9% |
| Childlessness Rate (TCR) | 48.1% |
| Societal Half-Life (SHL) | 38.1 years |
| TGI (great-grandchildren per 100 parents) | 19 |
Motherhood prevalence (TMR)
Estonia’s total maternal rate (TMR) is 51.9% in 2024. It is lower than in 2023 (down 3.7pp). Across the most recent five-year window (2020–2024), TMR has been falling with an average of 59.0%. Looking back to the 2020s (59.0%), TMR stands lower by about 7.1pp.
Globally, Estonia has one of the lowest TMR values (ranked 40/42). Within Europe, Estonia is ranked last among 30 countries (lowest TMR).
| Year | TMR | Year | TMR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | 109.8% | 2010 | 72.2% |
| 1980 | 101.0% | 2020 | 63.1% |
| 1990 | 97.5% | 2023 | 55.6% |
| 2000 | 65.7% | 2024 | 51.9%* |
Source: Eurostat; Human Fertility Database. *Measure estimated by Birthgap.org based on partial data from Statistics Estonia.
Children per mother (CPM)
In 2024, mothers in Estonia had an average of 2.48 children. It jumped noticeably from 2023 (up 0.14). Across the most recent five-year window, CPM is rising with an average of 2.43. Compared with the long-run norm from the 2020s (2.43), mothers in Estonia are now having higher by about 0.05 children on average.
Globally, Estonia has one of the highest CPM values (ranked 3/42). Within Europe, Estonia has one of the highest CPM values (ranked 2/30).
| Year | CPM | Year | CPM |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | 1.99 | 2010 | 2.38 |
| 1980 | 2.01 | 2020 | 2.48 |
| 1990 | 2.10 | 2023 | 2.34 |
| 2000 | 2.06 | 2024 | 2.48* |
Source: Eurostat; Human Fertility Database. *Measure estimated by Birthgap.org based on partial data from Statistics Estonia.
Average maternal age (AMA)
In 2024, mothers in Estonia had children at an average age of 28.9 years. It has fallen by 0.7 years compared with the previous year. Across the most recent five-year window, AMA has been falling with an average of 29.3 years. Against the oldest decade baseline on record (2020s, 29.3 years), AMA now stands lower by about 0.4 years.
Globally, Estonia ranks 34 out of 42 countries for average maternal age. Within Europe, Estonia ranks 23 out of 30 countries for average maternal age.
| Year | BIRTH | Year | BIRTH |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | 24.13 | 2010 | 26.28 |
| 1980 | 23.17 | 2020 | 29.07 |
| 1990 | 22.73 | 2023 | 29.60 |
| 2000 | 23.95 | 2024 | 28.90* |
Source: Eurostat; Human Fertility Database. *Measure estimated by Birthgap.org based on partial data from Statistics Estonia.
Total Fertility Gap (TFG)
In 2024, Estonia’s TFG is 43.0% (equivalent to a TFR of 1.18). It rose sharply compared with 2023 (up 5.9pp). Across the most recent five-year window (2020–2024), the Total Fertility Gap has been rising with an average of 31.7%. Relative to the earliest available baseline in the 2020s (31.7%), today’s TFG is higher by about 11.3pp.
Globally, Estonia ranks 8 out of 42 countries for TFG. Within Europe, Estonia has one of the highest TFG values (ranked 5/30).
| Year | TFG | Year | TFG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | n/a | 2010 | 16.9% |
| 1980 | 1.9% | 2020 | 24.6% |
| 1990 | 1.0% | 2023 | 37.1% |
| 2000 | 34.5% | 2024 | 43.0%* |
Source: Eurostat; Human Fertility Database. *Measure estimated by Birthgap.org based on partial data from Statistics Estonia.
Future Worker Gap (FWG)
The Future Worker Gap (FWG) for Estonia stands at 47.6% in 2024. There was a marked increase versus 2023 (up 5.7pp). Across the most recent five-year window (2020–2024), FWG has been rising with an average of 36.2%. Against the oldest decade baseline on record (2020s, 36.2%), the FWG stands higher by about 11.4pp.
Globally, Estonia ranks 11 out of 39 countries for FWG. Within Europe, Estonia has one of the highest FWG values (ranked 7/29).
| Year | FWG | Year | FWG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | -77.3% | 2010 | 17.3% |
| 1980 | -9.0% | 2020 | 26.1% |
| 1990 | -6.0% | 2023 | 41.9% |
| 2000 | 34.3% | 2024 | 47.6%* |
Source: Eurostat; Human Fertility Database. *Measure estimated by Birthgap.org based on partial data from Statistics Estonia.
Societal Half-Life (SHL)
In 2024, Estonia’s Societal Half-Life (SHL) is 38.1 years. It moved sharply down from 2023 (down 9.1 years). Over the past five years, SHL has been falling; the 2020–2024 average is 60.7 years. Against the oldest decade baseline on record (2020s, 60.7 years), SHL now stands lower by about 22.6 years.
Globally, Estonia has one of the lowest SHL values (ranked 36/42). Within Europe, Estonia has one of the lowest SHL values (ranked 26/30).
Triple Generation Impact (TGI)
With this Birthgap (TFG) for every 100 people of fertility age in Estonia, there would be 19 great-grandchildren, representing a -81.0% drop from the current generation.
Globally, Estonia ranks 34 out of 42 countries for TGI.
Within Europe, Estonia has one of the lowest TGI values (ranked 25/30).
Birth trajectory
Milestones Years: - Births down 50% in 2062 - Births down 75% in 2100 - Births down 90% in 2151
Based on the 2024 birth pattern, total births would fall by half from 9,690 in 2024 to 4,845 in 2062, and by 90% to 969 in 2151 (ignoring migration).
Childlessness rate (TCR)
The TCR in Estonia is 48.1% as of 2024. It increased relative to 2023 (up 3.7pp). Over the past five years, childlessness has been rising; the 2020–2024 average is 41.0%. Against the oldest decade baseline on record (2020s, 41.0%), the rate today stands higher by about 7.1pp.
Globally, Estonia has one of the highest childlessness rates (ranked 3/42). Within Europe, Estonia has the highest childlessness rate (ranked 1/30).
| Year | TCR | Year | TCR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | -9.8% | 2010 | 27.8% |
| 1980 | -1.0% | 2020 | 36.9% |
| 1990 | 2.5% | 2023 | 44.4% |
| 2000 | 34.3% | 2024 | 48.1%* |
Source: Eurostat; Human Fertility Database. *Measure estimated by Birthgap.org based on partial data from Statistics Estonia.
Total births
Total births in Estonia were 9,690 in 2024. It is down from 2023 by 1,254 births. Over the past five years, total births have been falling, averaging 11,743 per year. Compared with the 2020s average (11,743), total births are now lower by 2,053 births (17.5% decrease).
| Year | Births | Year | Births |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | 21.6k | 2010 | 15.8k |
| 1980 | 22.2k | 2020 | 13.2k |
| 1990 | 22.3k | 2023 | 10.9k |
| 2000 | 13.1k | 2024 | 9,690* |
Source: Eurostat; Human Fertility Database. *Measure estimated by Birthgap.org based on partial data from Statistics Estonia.
Future Worker Gap (FWG)
The Future Worker Gap (FWG) for Estonia stands at 47.6% in 2024. There was a marked increase versus 2023 (up 5.7pp). Across the most recent five-year window (2020–2024), FWG has been rising with an average of 36.2%. Against the oldest decade baseline on record (2020s, 36.2%), the FWG stands higher by about 11.4pp.
Globally, Estonia ranks 11 out of 39 countries for FWG. Within Europe, Estonia has one of the highest FWG values (ranked 7/29).
| Year | FWG | Year | FWG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | -77.3% | 2010 | 17.3% |
| 1980 | -9.0% | 2020 | 26.1% |
| 1990 | -6.0% | 2023 | 41.9% |
| 2000 | 34.3% | 2024 | 47.6%* |
Source: Eurostat; Human Fertility Database. *Measure estimated by Birthgap.org based on partial data from Statistics Estonia.
