Bulgaria
Based on the most recent published official birth records (and Birthgap harmonisation where noted).
In 2024, Bulgaria experienced a notable decline in its total maternal rate, dropping by 4.2 percentage points to 85.8%, reflecting a slight decrease from the previous year. Despite this, the country's fertility measures remain close to their long-term averages for the 2020s, with only minor shifts in maternal age and fertility gap.
- The lifetime childlessness rate rose to 14.2%, up 4.2 percentage points from 2023, but remains near its five-year average, marking the lowest rate both globally and in Europe.
- Completed fertility per mother remains steady at about 1.98 children, one of the lowest in Europe, indicating minimal change in family size trends.
- Average maternal age at birth is low relative to regional peers at 27.6 years, slightly younger than the recent five-year average.
- The total fertility gap increased to 18.1% in 2024, suggesting a modest rise in the shortfall relative to replacement fertility levels.
In 2024, Bulgaria shows stable birth rates but faces demographic challenges, including a rising future worker gap and declining total births.
- Highest total maternal rate globally and in Europe
- Children per mother among the lowest in Europe
- One of the youngest average maternal ages in Europe
- Lowest childlessness rate in Europe
- Future Worker Gap rising, ranked 10th in Europe
Key fertility indicators — Bulgaria
| Total Maternal Rate (TMR) | 85.8% |
| Childlessness Rate (TCR) | 14.2% |
| Average Maternal Age (AMA) | 27.6 years |
| Birthgap Indicator (TFG) | 18.1% |
| TGI (great-grandchildren per 100 parents) | 55 |
Motherhood prevalence (TMR)
In 2024, the total maternal rate (TMR) is 85.8%. It fell compared with 2023 (down 4.2pp). Across the most recent five-year window (2020–2024), TMR has been broadly stable with an average of 85.6%. Compared with the long-run norm from the 2020s (85.6%), completed fertility today is close to that long-run level.
Globally, Bulgaria has the highest TMR (ranked 1/42). Within Europe, Bulgaria has the highest TMR (ranked 1/30).
| Year | TMR | Year | TMR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | 95.5% | 2010 | 83.5% |
| 1980 | 98.8% | 2020 | 81.4% |
| 1990 | 87.5% | 2023 | 90.0% |
| 2000 | 76.0% | 2024 | 85.8% |
Source: Eurostat; Human Fertility Database.
Children per mother (CPM)
Bulgaria’s children per mother (CPM) stands at 1.98 in 2024. It remains broadly stable compared with 2023 (little change). Looking at the last five years, CPM has been broadly stable (five-year average 1.95). Against the oldest decade baseline on record (2020s, 1.95), completed family size today is close to that long-run level.
Globally, Bulgaria ranks 35 out of 42 countries for CPM. Within Europe, Bulgaria has one of the lowest CPM values (ranked 25/30).
| Year | CPM | Year | CPM |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | 2.27 | 2010 | 1.85 |
| 1980 | 2.07 | 2020 | 1.91 |
| 1990 | 2.03 | 2023 | 1.98 |
| 2000 | 1.73 | 2024 | 1.98 |
Source: Eurostat; Human Fertility Database.
Average maternal age (AMA)
In 2024, the average maternal age (AMA) at birth is 27.6 years. It has edged down slightly (-0.2 years). Across the most recent five-year window, AMA has been rising with an average of 27.2 years. Compared with the long-run norm from the 2020s (27.2 years), the average maternal age today is higher by about 0.4 years.
Globally, Bulgaria has one of the lowest average maternal ages (ranked 40/42). Within Europe, Bulgaria has one of the lowest average maternal ages (ranked 28/30).
| Year | BIRTH | Year | BIRTH |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | 21.99 | 2010 | 25.64 |
| 1980 | 21.85 | 2020 | 26.41 |
| 1990 | 22.01 | 2023 | 27.78 |
| 2000 | 23.48 | 2024 | 27.62 |
Source: Eurostat; Human Fertility Database.
Total Fertility Gap (TFG)
Bulgaria’s Total Fertility Gap (TFG) is 18.1% in 2024 (equivalent to a TFR of 1.70). It increased relative to 2023 (up 4.1pp). Looking at the last five years, the Total Fertility Gap has been falling (average 19.4% across 2020–2024). Against the oldest decade baseline on record (2020s, 19.4%), the TFG stands lower by about 1.3pp.
Globally, Bulgaria is ranked last among 42 countries (lowest TFG). Within Europe, Bulgaria is ranked last among 30 countries (lowest TFG).
| Year | TFG | Year | TFG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | n/a | 2010 | 25.3% |
| 1980 | 1.0% | 2020 | 25.1% |
| 1990 | 14.0% | 2023 | 14.0% |
| 2000 | 36.5% | 2024 | 18.1% |
Source: Eurostat; Human Fertility Database.
Future Worker Gap (FWG)
The Future Worker Gap (FWG) for Bulgaria stands at 46.8% in 2024. There was a marked increase versus 2023 (up 7.4pp). Looking at the last five years, FWG has been rising (average 42.6% across 2020–2024). Relative to the earliest available baseline in the 2020s (42.6%), today’s FWG is higher by about 4.2pp.
Globally, Bulgaria ranks 14 out of 39 countries for FWG. Within Europe, Bulgaria ranks 10 out of 29 countries for FWG.
| Year | FWG | Year | FWG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | -45.9% | 2010 | 26.4% |
| 1980 | -10.9% | 2020 | 43.8% |
| 1990 | -6.5% | 2023 | 39.4% |
| 2000 | 40.6% | 2024 | 46.8% |
Source: Eurostat; Human Fertility Database.
Societal Half-Life (SHL)
In 2024, SHL in Bulgaria is 103.0 years. It moved sharply down from 2023 (down 34.2 years). Over the past five years, SHL has been rising; the 2020–2024 average is 100.4 years. Relative to the earliest available baseline in the 2020s (100.4 years), today’s SHL is higher by about 2.6 years.
Globally, Bulgaria has the highest SHL (ranked 1/42). Within Europe, Bulgaria has the highest SHL (ranked 1/30).
Triple Generation Impact (TGI)
With this Birthgap (TFG) for every 100 people of fertility age in Bulgaria, there would be 55 great-grandchildren, representing a -45.0% drop from the current generation.
Globally, Bulgaria has the highest TGI (ranked 1/42).
Within Europe, Bulgaria has the highest TGI (ranked 1/30).
Birth trajectory
Milestones Years: - Births down 50% in 2127 - Births down 75% in 2230 - Births down 90% in 2366
Based on the 2024 birth pattern, total births would fall by half from 52,909 in 2024 to 26,454 in 2127, and by 90% to 5,291 in 2366 (ignoring migration).
Childlessness rate (TCR)
In 2024, Bulgaria’s lifetime childlessness rate (TCR) stands at 14.2%. It is higher than in 2023 (up 4.2pp). Looking at the last five years, childlessness has been broadly stable (average 14.4% across 2020–2024). Looking back to the 2020s (14.4%), childlessness is now close to that long-run level.
Globally, Bulgaria is ranked last among 42 countries (lowest childlessness rate). Within Europe, Bulgaria is ranked last among 30 countries (lowest childlessness rate).
| Year | TCR | Year | TCR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | 4.5% | 2010 | 16.5% |
| 1980 | 1.2% | 2020 | 18.6% |
| 1990 | 12.5% | 2023 | 10.0% |
| 2000 | 24.0% | 2024 | 14.2% |
Source: Eurostat; Human Fertility Database.
Total births
Total births in Bulgaria were 52,909 in 2024. It is down from 2023 by 3,507 births. Over the past five years, total births have been falling, averaging 56,528 per year. Compared with the 2020s average (56,528), total births are now lower by 3,619 births (6.4% decrease).
| Year | Births | Year | Births |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | 138.5k | 2010 | 75.2k |
| 1980 | 127.9k | 2020 | 58.8k |
| 1990 | 104.7k | 2023 | 56.4k |
| 2000 | 73.3k | 2024 | 52.9k |
Source: Eurostat; Human Fertility Database.
Future Worker Gap (FWG)
The Future Worker Gap (FWG) for Bulgaria stands at 46.8% in 2024. There was a marked increase versus 2023 (up 7.4pp). Looking at the last five years, FWG has been rising (average 42.6% across 2020–2024). Relative to the earliest available baseline in the 2020s (42.6%), today’s FWG is higher by about 4.2pp.
Globally, Bulgaria ranks 14 out of 39 countries for FWG. Within Europe, Bulgaria ranks 10 out of 29 countries for FWG.
| Year | FWG | Year | FWG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | -45.9% | 2010 | 26.4% |
| 1980 | -10.9% | 2020 | 43.8% |
| 1990 | -6.5% | 2023 | 39.4% |
| 2000 | 40.6% | 2024 | 46.8% |
Source: Eurostat; Human Fertility Database.
