Birthgap 15 Unweighted
Based on the most recent published official birth records (and Birthgap harmonisation where noted).
In 2024, Birthgap 15 Unweighted experienced a notable increase in its Total Fertility Gap, rising by 2.2 percentage points from the previous year and marking a continuing upward trend over the last five years. Meanwhile, the average number of children per mother remained largely unchanged, and the average maternal age held steady around 29.8 years. Childlessness showed a modest increase, reflecting shifting family patterns within this cohort.
- Completed fertility fell slightly to 63.9%, continuing a gradual decline over recent years.
- The Total Fertility Gap climbed to 33.1%, indicating a rising difference between desired and actual fertility levels.
- Average completed family size stabilized at about 2.20 children, consistent with the 2020s baseline.
- Childlessness rose to 36.1%, up 1.8 percentage points since 2023, revealing more women remaining without children.
In 2024, Birthgap 15 Unweighted shows continued declines in fertility and lifetime births, with subtle shifts in maternal age and family size patterns.
- Completed fertility down slightly; average children per mother steady at 2.20
- Ranks mid-tier globally for fertility metrics like TMR and CPM
- Average maternal age stable near 30 years, middle-ranked internationally
- Lifetime childlessness rising, now over one-third of women
- Significant fertility gap causing a projected long-term population decline
Key fertility indicators — Birthgap 15 Unweighted
| TGI (great-grandchildren per 100 parents) | 30 |
Motherhood prevalence (TMR)
Among mothers in Birthgap 15 Unweighted, completed fertility is 63.9% (2024). It is down marginally since 2023 (down 1.8pp). Over the past five years, TMR has been falling; the 2020–2024 average is 67.7%. Against the oldest decade baseline on record (2020s, 67.7%), mothers are now having lower by about 3.8pp children on average.
Globally, Birthgap 15 Unweighted ranks 19 out of 42 countries for TMR.
No valid historical data after filtering.
Children per mother (CPM)
In 2024, mothers in Birthgap 15 Unweighted had an average of 2.20 children. There is little change since 2023 (little change). Across the most recent five-year window, CPM is broadly stable with an average of 2.21. Against the oldest decade baseline on record (2020s, 2.21), completed family size today is close to that long-run level.
Globally, Birthgap 15 Unweighted ranks 17 out of 42 countries for CPM.
No valid historical data after filtering.
Average maternal age (AMA)
In 2024, mothers in Birthgap 15 Unweighted had children at an average age of 29.8 years. It is essentially unchanged from the previous year. Across the most recent five-year window, AMA has been rising with an average of 29.5 years. Relative to the earliest available baseline in the 2020s (29.5 years), today’s AMA is close to that long-run level.
Globally, Birthgap 15 Unweighted ranks 24 out of 42 countries for average maternal age.
No valid historical data after filtering.
Total Fertility Gap (TFG)
In 2024, Birthgap 15 Unweighted’s TFG is 33.1% (equivalent to a TFR of 1.38). It has risen compared with 2023 (up 2.2pp). Over the past five years, the Total Fertility Gap has been rising; the 2020–2024 average is 28.3%. Relative to the earliest available baseline in the 2020s (28.3%), today’s TFG is higher by about 4.8pp.
Globally, Birthgap 15 Unweighted ranks 22 out of 42 countries for TFG.
No valid historical data after filtering.
Future Worker Gap (FWG)
In 2024, Birthgap 15 Unweighted’s Future Worker Gap (FWG) is 37.9%. It is up marginally on 2023 (up 1.5pp). Across the most recent five-year window (2020–2024), FWG has been rising with an average of 33.4%. Against the oldest decade baseline on record (2020s, 33.4%), the FWG stands higher by about 4.5pp.
Globally, Birthgap 15 Unweighted ranks 18 out of 39 countries for FWG.
No valid historical data after filtering.
Societal Half-Life (SHL)
In 2024, SHL in Birthgap 15 Unweighted is 58.6 years. It moved sharply down from 2023 (down 6.0 years). Over the past five years, SHL has been falling; the 2020–2024 average is 72.0 years. Relative to the earliest available baseline in the 2020s (72.0 years), today’s SHL is lower by about 13.5 years.
Globally, Birthgap 15 Unweighted ranks 17 out of 42 countries for SHL.
Triple Generation Impact (TGI)
With this Birthgap (TFG) for every 100 people of fertility age in Birthgap 15 Unweighted, there would be 30 great-grandchildren, representing a -70.0% drop from the current generation.
Globally, Birthgap 15 Unweighted ranks 21 out of 42 countries for TGI.
Birth trajectory
Milestones Years: - Births down 50% in 2083 - Births down 75% in 2141 - Births down 90% in 2219
Based on the 2024 birth pattern, total births would fall by half from 65 in 2024 to 32 in 2083, and by 90% to 6 in 2219 (ignoring migration).
Childlessness rate (TCR)
36.1% of women in Birthgap 15 Unweighted remain childless over their lifetime (2024). There has been a slight increase since 2023 (up 1.8pp). Across the most recent five-year window (2020–2024), childlessness has been rising with an average of 32.3%. Relative to the earliest available baseline in the 2020s (32.3%), today’s level is higher by about 3.8pp.
Globally, Birthgap 15 Unweighted ranks 23 out of 42 countries for childlessness.
No valid historical data after filtering.
Total births
Total births in Birthgap 15 Unweighted were 65 in 2024. It is broadly unchanged from 2023. Over the past five years, total births have been broadly stable, averaging 69 per year. Compared with the 2020s average (69), total births are now 5.8% decrease.
No valid historical data after filtering.
Future Worker Gap (FWG)
In 2024, Birthgap 15 Unweighted’s Future Worker Gap (FWG) is 37.9%. It is up marginally on 2023 (up 1.5pp). Across the most recent five-year window (2020–2024), FWG has been rising with an average of 33.4%. Against the oldest decade baseline on record (2020s, 33.4%), the FWG stands higher by about 4.5pp.
Globally, Birthgap 15 Unweighted ranks 18 out of 39 countries for FWG.
No valid historical data after filtering.
